Peer-Reviewed Articles

“Whose Side are You On? Balancing Proximity and Partiality in the Study of Civil Wars.” With Peter Krause. Conflict, Security & Development. Special Issue (2024).

“A Bargaining Theory of Criminal War.” With Elena Barham. International Studies Quarterly (2024).

“The Formation of Attitudes Toward Immigration in Colombia” With Pablo Argote. International Interactions (2024).

“Vaccine Diplomacy: How COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution in Latin America Increases Trust in Foreign Governments.” With Elena Barham, Julian E. Gerez, John Marshall, and Oscar Pocasangre. World Politics (2023). Mentioned in Foreign Policy. 

“A Farewell to Arms? Election Results and Lasting Peace After Civil War.” International Security  (2022).

“How Do Violent Politicians Govern? The Case of Paramilitary-Tied Mayors in Colombia.” British Journal of Political Science (2021).

“Messages that Increase COVID-19 Vaccine Willingness: Evidence from Online Experiments in Six Latin American Countries.” With Pablo Argote, Elena Barham, Julian E. Gerez, John Marshall, and Oscar Pocasangre. PLOS One (2021).

“The Shot, the Message, and the Messenger: COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance in Latin America.” With Pablo Argote, Elena Barham, Julian E. Gerez, John Marshall, and Oscar Pocasangre. Nature Partner Journal – Vaccines (2021). Appendix.

“COVID-19 and Fieldwork: Challenges and Solutions.” With Peter Krause, Ora Szekely and others. PS: Political Science and Politics (2021).

“Political Life After Civil Wars: Introducing the Civil War Successor Party Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research (2020).

“Wartime Networks and the Social Logic of Crime.” With Laura Paler and Cyrus Samii. Journal of Peace Research (2020). Appendix  * Main survey instrument * Self-administered survey instrument  * Instructions for enumerators *

“Voting for Victors: Why Violent Actors Win Post-War Elections.”World Politics (2019).

“Determinants of Ex-Combatants’ Attitudes Toward Transitional Justice in Colombia.” Conflict Management and Peace Science (2018).

“Retrospective Causal Inference with Machine Learning Ensembles: An Application to Anti-Recidivism Policies in Colombia.” With Laura Paler and Cyrus Samii. Political Analysis (2016).

“The Dark Side of Power-Sharing: Middle Managers and Civil War Recurrence.” Comparative Politics (2014).

“State Strategies in Multiethnic Territories: Explaining Variation in the Former Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc.” British Journal of Political Science (2014).

“Organizational Legacies of Violence: Conditions Favoring Insurgency in Colombia, 1964-1984.” Journal of Peace Research (2012) —Honorable Mention, ‘Nils Petter Gleditsch JPR Article of the Year Award, 2012.’

“The Roots of Coercion and Insurgency: Exploiting the Counterfactual Case.” Conflict, Security & Development (2011).

Book Chapters

“Political Life After Ethnic War.” In Institutional Legacies of Violence, ed. Patricia Justino. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2025.

“Conducting Safe Fieldwork on Violence and Peace.” In Stories from the Field: A Guide to Navigating Fieldwork in Political Science, eds. Peter Krause and Ora Szekely. New York: Columbia University Press, 2020. Accompanying podcast here.

“Reintegration of Ex-Combatants” In Encyclopedia of Transitional Justice, eds. Lavinia Stan and Nadya Nedelsky. 2nd Edition. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2023.

“Determinants of State Strength and Capacity: Understanding Citizen Allegiance.” With Juan Albarracín. In As Wars End: What Colombia Can Tell Us About the Sustainability of Peace and Transitional Justice, eds. James Meernik and Jacqueline DeMeritt. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2019.

“The Logic and Consequences of State Strategies Toward Violent Non-State Actors.” In Non-State Challenges in a Re-Ordered World: The Jackals of Westphalia, eds. Stefano Ruzzo, Charles C. Geisler and Anja P. Jakobi. New York: Routledge, 2016.

“Reintegration of Ex-Combatants” In Encyclopedia of Transitional Justice, eds. Lavinia Stan and Nadya Nedelsky. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013. Volume 1. pp. 79-84.

“Anger, Violence, and Political Science.” With Roger Petersen. In International Handbook of Anger: Constituent and Concomitant Biological, Psychological, and Social Processes  eds. M. Potegal, G. Stemmler, and C.Spielberger. New York: Springer, 2010.

“Revenge or Reconciliation: Theory and Method of Emotions in the Context of Colombia’s Peace Process.” With Roger Petersen. In Law in Peace Negotiations, eds. M. Bergsmo and P. Kalmanovitz. Oslo: Torkel Opsahl Academic EPublisher. 2 Edition. Re-published in Spanish by the Colombian Vice Presidency and Universidad del Rosario Press, 2010.

Policy Writing

“Why Sheinbaum May Take a Different Path on Mexico’s Security.” Americas Quarterly. October 1, 2024.

“Trump is Running for Reelection as a ‘Strongman,’ Promising Protection from Anarchy. That Might Not Work.” Monkey Cage, The Washington Post, September 23, 2020.

“FARC Rebels’ Political Party Performs Poorly in First Post-War Election,” Political Violence @ A Glance, March 22, 2018.

“7,000 FARC Rebels are Demobilizing in Colombia. But Where do They Go Next?” Monkey Cage, The Washington Post, April 21, 2017.

“How can Colombia Stop Former FARC Rebels from Turning to Crime?” (with Laura Paler and Cyrus Samii) Monkey Cage, The Washington Post, October 2, 2016.

“Retorno a la Legalidad o Reincidencia de Excombatientes en Colombia: Dimensión del Fenómeno y Factores de Riesgo” (with Laura Paler and Cyrus Samii). Informes Fundación Ideas para la Paz 22. Bogotá. June 2014.